BREXIT IS A BAD TRADE

Comment from The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)

“On June 23, the United Kingdom holds a referendum on whether to walk away from the European Union.

“A look at the island nation’s tangled web of global trade relationships highlights just how damaging a potential “Brexit” could be.

“Rising from the ashes of World War II, the European Union is among the most successful efforts at sustained international cooperation in human history. It has also resulted in major economic benefits to the United Kingdom during its 43 years of membership. 

LINK TO READ THE  COMMENT FROM  Chad P. Bown (PIIE) © US News & World Report(

 

 

BREXIT :THE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES

Facts vs Opinions

I set out  to provide useful information for investors with an ongoing comparison of different fact based  analysis published on  Brexit issues.    However,  as the debate has progressed, all  independent fact based economic analysis published has warned on a  recession, rising interest rates,   currency depreciation, falling economic growth  and loss of the dominance of the City of London as a financial hub  for Europe if Britain votes for Brexit.

Notwithstanding these warnings  Brexiteers  have  some valid arguments.   The most potent is that while Britain is obliged to keep open doors for all EU citizens at all times it will be impossible to have control  over levels of immigration.

Rather than providing fact based analysis  Brexiteers tend to  rubbish all the fact based analysis that doesn’t support their contentions – claiming all the forecasters with conclusions  contrary to theirs have made  some mistakes in the past, This contention is naive.

 The vocal Brexiteers have not supported their case  with fact based information on their own track records as forecasters that  would support their conclusions.   Nor have they they provided  information  on their formal qualifications as economists or their experience in marketing.

Hedging against the  intended and unintended Brexit Referendum Consequences

The  23rd June Referendum will have consequences for everyone – some  intended and some unintended.The International Economy Magazine have published a valuable symposium of views  from 30 well informed and qualified commentators with essential information on the unintended consequences of Brexit

The Bruegel Think Tank and others have also published well supported comment on the risks of Brexit to the dominant position of London as a financial centre – an outcome that could have serious negative implications for the British economy.

Hedging Against Brexit Financial Risks

Investors should take steps to hedge  against  possible adverse outcomes after the  Referendum on June 23rd.

Gold should be on the discussion agenda  when advice is sought from   financial advisers on suitable hedging strategies.