The Goldwatcher, The Globewatcher, Precarity & Opportunity
I have blogged as The Goldwatcher since Wiley commissioned me to write The Goldwatcher – Demystifying Gold Investing in March 2007. To demystify gold I followed a common sense approach structuring the content as a framework linking reliable information resources with simple arithmetic. The formula worked for an exceptionally well timed book published in July 2008.
The word precarious crops up again and again in comments on the seemingly endless stream of destabilising developments playing out on the world stage. These include a global refugee crisis, the menacing conflict in Ukraine, Putin’s revanchism, Middle East chaos, nuclear proliferation, the emergence of Ebola and other lethal diseases, global debt surging faster than GDP growth, interest rate supression, wealth inequality and potential asset bubbles inflating North, South East and West.
There is also an elephant in the room – or should I say on the planet:
The word precarity also being used now is useful. If we hear this or that is precarious we might think “have heard that all before” and not take much notice. But, if we hear the word precarity our response is likely to be different. It will be stupid not to take notice.
Investing strategies may have been seen as a low priority for many of us. But,in a climate of of precarity, following suitable strategies directed at risk control and strategies directed at recognising opportunities for profit are likely to have life changing consequences.
We can choose strategies between two extremes. At one extreme the strategy is to follow our gut instincts – what Keynes called our animal spirits. At the other extreme is the common sense strategy based on reliable information and measurable forecast outcomes. Or, put another way, what this website promotes:
COMMON SENSE = INFORMATION AND SIMPLE ARITHMETIC
In the information age access to investor information ranging from basic statistical idata to macroeconomic issues has been democratised.
We can dive in at the macroeconomics deep end by listening to this presentation from on How The Economic Machine works by Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful money managers.