ACCESSIBLE IMF DATA ON GLOBAL GROWTH

WEO Infographic  LINK TO IMF WEBSITE AND VIDEO WITH OLIVIER BLANCHARD IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST

Our Focus on Information:

Three elements relate to the contribution we plan to make to  Investor Literacy:

Common Sense : Information : Simple Arithmetic 

 Our key research focus is on reliable information sources.  Identifying the resources, incorporating them in an information framework and monitoring them.

Lessons from the Global Financial Crisis

Among Warren Buffett’s wise and apt comments is the warning when the tide goes out  nude bathers will be exposed .

The 2007/8 Global Financial Crisis exposed banks, bankers, commentators, regulators, non bank financial institutions, misguided investors, leveraged speculators, gamblers  and  opportunists. Also not looking their best were supra national institutions including the IMF and World Bank.

Since the crisis the supra nationals have taken steps to improve the quality of their surveillance and  forecasting responsibilities. They have also significantly upgraded the quality of their presentations.

The  January 2015 IMF Infographic above highlights the key considerations that influence growth forecasts and  illustrates  how yesterday’s upside risks, such as a fall in oil prices, will  become today’s downside risk if the oil price  rises instead of falling.

The  IMF websites are now a wealth of exceptionally well presented  information and research  on subjects including national fiscal and central bank monetary policies. This information supports the work I am doing on QE, Money Printing and Helicopter Money. More on this to follow by late next month.

John Katz        Twitter#johnkatzgoldwatcher

 

UK ELECTION AND YOUR INVESTMENTS

Articles, news and expert comment surrounding the general election

Shares, Bonds and the Sterling  Rise after Tory win: City AM

Sectors That Could Benefit Hargreaves Landsdown

The Stocks Set To Prosper : STOCKOPEDIA 

News and Commentary Updates Hargreaves Landsdown

International Investors Rush back Into UK Property Guardian

Cameron’s Hard Work Starts Now Bloomberg View 

Selected Fund Manager’s Opinions

Cameron victory positive for stability but risks with E.U.  Referendum : IHS

McKINSEY ON FOUR GLOBAL FORCES BREAKING THE TRENDS

 

 

No Ordinary Disruption

LINK TO YOUTUBE PRESENTATION BY McKINSEY’S JONATHAN WOETZEL

 LINK TO INFOGRAPHICS ON THE 4 DISRUPTIONS

1: The Age of Urbanisation;

2: Accelerating Technological Change;

3: Challenges of an Aging World; and

4: Greater Global Connections

SLIDE SHOW WITH DATA ON THE 4 DISRUPTIONS 

The  McKinseyGlobal Institute book addresses the  “Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends” transforming the global economy and ‘how we need to reset our intuition ..

Some conclusions  …..

‘…the Great Moderation is gone…   the cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world’s labour force could shrink. Individuals, particularly with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.’

Link to Globewatcher posting The Robots are happy

 

PAUL McCULLEY ON INTEREST RATES & INVESTING OPPORTUNITIES

 

WealthTrack

The legendary Macroeconomist, Money Manager and Fed Watcher Paul McCulley is recognised as one of the world’s best informed commentators on global financial markets, interest rates and monetary policy.

In this Wealth Track interview recorded last week  McCulley explains, with  unmatched clarity,  the reasons for and the consequences of  interest rate suppression in The United States, Europe and elsewhere. He expects US interest rate rises to be fractional and  to remain ultra light for years- with target US Treasury 10 year bond rates a few years ahead of only 2%

Consuelo Mack  focuses the interview  on the questions we are all asking. The  reasons  for the ultra low  interest rate policies.  How long ultra low rates are likely to continue, and associated risks including asset bubbles and aggravated  unfair wealth distribution.

Outlining how investors can profit from opportunities McCulley makes a compelling case for European Equities with the currency risk hedged.